| §網 綠翠園 站§ 正視部落格 |
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| 主題：中國真的是“大國崛起” ?? |
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| 發表：正視 | 2009-06-14 09:01:58 | 閱覽數：154871 | (IP: ) | T 2835 | 引 用 |
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| 回應：Red Lie | 2010-05-24 01:08:15 | (IP: ) | T 2835_R 140 | 引 用 |
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版主: 我試圖貼一篇英文文章在【中國真的是“大國崛起” ??】這一欄， 但遭遇到與 kkk網友 相同的情況 -- 貼不上，只顯現 "指令錯誤，無法選取資料庫!" 的文字。 是否能請版主幫忙貼上這篇文章，謝謝！ 我已將這篇不算長但相當有內容的英文文章貼在汪笨湖網站，尋著以下網址可以找到: http://www.wangbenhu.com.tw/discuss/view.asp?Discuss=001&Page=1& articleid=20071211113452&sortmode=&keyword= 第 1217 篇 The article below is a good one to look into whats really going on inside China as far as the bubble economy is concerned. --------------- Andy Xie: Chinas Government Parasitically Attached To The Property Bubble Vincent Fernando, CFA | May 21, 2010, 4:38 AM One of the key problems with hoping that the Chinese government cools Chinas property bubble is that government officials have been feeding off of the bubble for so long now. Its their lifeline. Caixin: Powerful interest groups have paralyzed Chinas macro policy, with ominous long-term consequences. Local governments consider high land prices their lifeline. State-owned enterprises dont want interest rates to rise. Exporters are vehemently against currency appreciation. Chinas macro policies have been reduced to psychotherapy, relying on sound bites and small technical moves to scare speculators. In the meantime, inflation continues to pick up momentum. Unless the central government bites the bullet and makes choices, the economy might experience a disruptive adjustment in the foreseeable future. Three reasons he gives for why the government is under massive pressure to simply let the bubbles keep expanding: 1) Local governments have become dependent on income from the property sector as profits in manufacturing have come down, yet the need for local government spending keeps increasing. The real revenue game has shifted to property. 2) Most of the debt in mainland China is in fact that of state owned enterprises. Keeping interest rates exceptionally low has become a national policy for protecting the state sector. 3) Chinese exporters are in rough shape due to still-weak global demand plus rising labor and regulatory costs locally. They are vehemently opposed to currency appreciation. (Which many believe is needed to reduce speculative inflows Chinas policies have traveled the path of least immediate resistance - monetary expansion and asset inflation. The main purpose behind asset inflation is that the government can tax it. It provides a place for people to chase their get-rich-quick dreams and is popular as long as the market goes up. It also offers insiders who have disproportionate influence to play the game at the expense of little people. It is no coincidence that Chinas policies have been so pro-asset-inflation in the past few years. Basically, if China actually cools its asset market bubbles as it ostensibly intends to, it could then be faced with a fiscal problem, in addition to others. http://www.businessinsider.com/andy-xie-chinas-doomed-because-the-government-feeds-off- of-the-property-bubble-2010-5 |
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| 竹縫 視界 | 耳聾 世界 | 泰伯 觀點 | Joy 隨筆 | 哈利 天地 | Jerry C 鳥 世 界 | 射水魚 天 空 | 討海人 鏡 頭 | 嘻笑 人間 | 詩情 畫藝 | 老工仔 思 維 | 網網 相連 | 歷史 庫存 |